Young Men Could Swing Pennsylvania as Gender, Age Gaps Show Familiar Trends

In the high stakes state of Pennsylvania, the gender and age gap in polling reveals trends that resemble the 2020 election.
Four years ago, President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by less than two percentage points. However, voters under 30 voted for the Democrat over former President Donald Trump by 27 points.
According to a CBS News poll conducted from Oct. 22-28, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris leads Trump, her Republican challenger, 65-33, among Pennsylvania voters under 30. Meanwhile, Trump holds a 56-42 lead among all male voters in the Keystone State.
An average of three recent New York Times/Siena College polls, conducted from September to October, shows Trump leading Harris among young men, nationally, by 21 points (58 percent to 37 percent).
Meanwhile, Harris holds 39-point advantage among young women (67 percent to 28 percent) but has struggled to cut into the former president’s margin with young men.
On the eve of Election Day, Newsweek spoke to four young men in Lehigh County in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.
Two Muhlenberg College students wouldn’t share who they were voting for, while another student was all in for Harris, even attending her rally Monday at the private college in Allentown. One high school student told Newsweek that he didn’t plan to vote.
“I think everything about this election is blown out of proportion,” said Conor, a student at Muhlenberg College, who along with his friend, Jake, would not share their voting choice.
Ian Neubauer, an 18-year-old William Allen High School student, said Monday he does not plan to vote.
“There’s different opinions of the election,” said Neubauer, who attended a recent Trump rally and Harris’ Muhlenberg rally. “I’m just trying to listen.”
Matan Dolev, a 22-year-old Muhlenberg student, attended the Harris rally and told Newsweek, “We’ve got to get her in office.”
“I’m not too worried to be honest,” Dolev said. “A lot of people talk, but I think we’re going to push through.”
A Harvard Kennedy School poll of 18-to-29-year-olds in September also found a 10-point gender gap, with Trump receiving 38 percent support from young men compared to 28 percent from young women, while Harris’ support stood at 49 percent among men and 59 percent among women.
Additionally, a poll by the Alliance for Black Equality conducted from October 15-19 revealed that 35 percent of Gen Z Black men support Trump—the highest among Black voters surveyed.
Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark, said the gender gap this election cycle is not only due to hot button topics such as abortion and Trump’s temperament. Longwell said that fragmented media diets are particularly prevalent in younger voters, especially among 18- to 29-year-olds. The media personalities each gender is attracted to is playing a large role, she said.
“The young men’s vote could be decisive in a very close election,” Jackson Katz, the co-founder of the Young Men’s Research Initiative told Newsweek. “There’s a huge gender gap among younger voters; young women support Harris overwhelmingly. Young men support her as well, but by much smaller percentages.”
For Katz, the appeal of Trump and his campaign to young men lies in his identity-based campaign strategy.
“The Trump campaign’s main strategy with men—especially, but not exclusively, white men—is an identity-based appeal. They want to drive home the idea that ‘real men vote Republican,'” he said.
Election Day is tomorrow. Follow Newsweek’s live blog for the latest updates.
Follow Newsweek’s Monica Sager on Twitter @monicasager3 for more election updates from the key swing state of Pennsylvania.